According to the United Nations report published in New York on 19 May, the crisis in the Middle East has brought a new shock to the world economy. Growth is slowing, inflation is rising and developing economies are hit hard by rising energy prices and tighter financial conditions.
World GDP growth is now forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2026, 0.2 points below the January projections, well below the pre-pandemic standards. A modest recovery is expected in 2027, with 2.8% growth. But this downward revision underscores a weakening of the already undynamic global outlook.
An energy shock with cascade effects
The conflict in the Middle East has interrupted the global trend of disinflation since 2023. Supply constraints, rising prices and rising freight and insurance costs have led to a general increase in production costs. Households and businesses face this pressure, while central banks face a dilemma: raising rates to contain inflation at risk of weakening growth, or maintaining the status quo and allowing pressure to take root.
Inflation in developed economies is expected to increase from 2.6 per cent in 2025 to 2.9 per cent in 2026. In developing economies, the increase is more pronounced: from 4.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent, as a result of energy and more expensive imports. Food prices are of particular concern, as disruptions in the supply of fertilizers threaten agricultural yields and increase pressure on basic commodities.
Contrast regional impacts
The most serious damage is concentrated in Western Asia, where growth is expected to fall from 3.6 per cent in 2025 to 1.4 per cent in 2026.. Europe, which is heavily dependent on imported energy, is slowing its growth to 1.1%. The United States is more resilient, with steady growth of 2.0%, driven by household demand and technological investment. In Asia, China cushions the shock with its strategic reserves, while India remains dynamic with 6.4% growth despite a slowdown. In Africa, the average masks a cleavage: energy exporters benefit from high prices, but importers are under increased fiscal pressure. Beyond the figures, the report points out that low-income families bear the greatest burden, with rising prices absorbing an increasing share of their spending and increasing poverty.
Against the background, the United Nations warns that the crisis threatens to reverse hard-won development gains. In the face of these cross threats, the Organization calls for enhanced multilateral action. LSeville Commitmentadopted at the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, is presented as a compass for expanding financing, supporting vulnerable countries and re-building global solidarity.
Mamadou SY
